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The crisis in Ukraine and the ensuing international sanctions on Russia have had wide-reaching effects on global politics, economics, and security. The conflict, which began in 2014, has not only reshaped the geopolitical landscape of Eastern Europe but also triggered a series of international sanctions aimed at curtailing Russia’s military and economic capabilities. These sanctions, while intended to enforce international law and deter aggression, have stirred significant debate regarding their effectiveness and unintended global repercussions. As the world grapples with the ongoing conflict, Alexander Rekeda, co-founder of the charitable foundation United for Freedom, https://unityforfreedom.org, discusses how the effectiveness of these sanctions continues to be a key point of debate among global leaders, policymakers, and scholars.
Background and Overview
The conflict in Ukraine began in 2014, escalating into a full-scale war that has drawn international attention and intervention. The war primarily involves Ukraine and Russia, along with indirect involvement by various global powers supporting both sides. The complexity of this conflict is highlighted by its geographical and political implications, influencing not just the region but the international community at large. In the ensuing years, the conflict has seen various shifts in intensity and territorial control, with significant impacts on civilian populations and regional stability.
The involvement of international entities, including NATO and the European Union, has further complicated the dynamics of the war, turning it into a focal point of global geopolitical tensions. The fighting has not only reshaped the landscape of Eastern Europe but also set the stage for a broader discourse on sovereignty and international law, challenging global leaders and organizations to reassess their strategies and alliances.
Intent and Purpose of International Sanctions
International sanctions are used by countries or international organizations to influence or punish nations violating international norms and laws. These measures can range from trade restrictions to financial penalties and are designed to exert pressure without resorting to armed conflict. Typically, sanctions aim to coerce countries into changing policies by crippling their economy or affecting influential elites.
Sanctions act as a diplomatic lever, often used to uphold international law and human rights. By targeting specific sectors or individuals, these actions can lead to political change and deter aggressive behaviors by signaling the international community’s disapproval and willingness to act against transgressions.
Sanctions Imposed on Russia and Their Impacts
Following the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the conflict in Eastern Ukraine, Western countries imposed a series of sanctions on Russia. These included restrictions on access to international financial markets, prohibitions on trade involving key technologies, and a freeze on the assets of specific individuals and companies. Over time, these measures have strained Russia’s economic growth, leading to a notable dip in the value of the ruble and increased inflation.
For example, the EU imported a record 202.7 billion euros from Russia in 2022. This volume is due to high prices for energy resources, caused by the invasion of Russia, and the EU’s dependence on Moscow’s energy carriers.
However, the EU imported only $49.4 billion euros worth of goods in 2023. The main Moscow’s exports to the EU remain metals (titanium, aluminum), nuclear fuel, and pipeline oil to the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary.
Such a sharp drop in Moscow’s exports to the EU is an extremely negative phenomenon for Russia. It’s import/export trade balance with European countries is increasingly negative. As a result, Moscow receives less currency necessary for parallel import through third countries of sanctioned goods from the same EU.
Evaluation of Sanctions’ Effectiveness
The effectiveness of sanctions remains a topic of significant debate among policymakers and scholars. While some argue that sanctions have successfully limited Russia’s military capabilities and economic strength, others contend that they have yet to force any substantial policy changes. The sanctions have undeniably affected Russia’s economy, yet the direct link to altering the government’s military actions in Ukraine is less clear.
Despite these economic hurdles, the Russian government has taken steps to mitigate the impact, promoting self-sufficiency, especially in agricultural and technological sectors. Politically, while the sanctions have rallied nationalist sentiments within Russia, they have also isolated the country from international diplomatic and trade relationships. This isolation has prompted Russia to seek new alliances and trade partnerships in other parts of the world, altering the global geopolitical landscape.
For example, in 2023, Gabon unexpectedly became the largest supplier of spare parts, engines, and avionics for Moscow-based Boeing and Airbus aircrafts. The Gabonese company Ter Assala Parts allegedly exported spare parts worth almost $1.5 billion to Russia, which exceeds half of Gabon’s annual budget. This company is not listed in the Trade Register of Gabon, and its registered address is a residential building in Libreville. Experts believe that this situation resulted from fraud and the cover-up of illegal exports by the Gabonese government.
A Gabonese company without an office or registration first bought 15 used engines for Boeing 737 and Airbus A320/A321 and then re-exported the sanctioned goods to moscow. It is interesting that the seller, who is probably a Western company, did not find it strange that a company without registration from a country with a population of 2.2 million, without its own airlines, buys 15 engines. Russia also received oxygen masks, washers, pipes, bolts, nuts, brackets, fuel supply regulators, used computers, and warning systems for airplanes through Gabon.
This all goes to show that without enforcement, the sanctions can be evaded.
Global Repercussions and Unintended Effects
The ripple effects of the sanctions on Russia have extended beyond its borders, impacting global markets and international relations. European countries, for instance, have faced challenges due to their heavy reliance on Russian energy supplies, which has led to increased energy prices and a search for alternative suppliers. Similarly, countries that previously traded extensively with Russia have had to navigate disrupted supply chains and economic instability.
As the situation evolves, the international community continues to monitor the effectiveness of sanctions and adjust strategies accordingly. The future of these sanctions will likely depend on broader geopolitical shifts and domestic developments within Russia and Ukraine. Onlookers remain observant of how these economic pressures might influence not only the immediate conflict but also long-term global politics and economic patterns. This forward-looking approach is crucial in anticipating potential outcomes and preparing for the implications they may carry for international stability and security.